THE LONG VIEW

Bottom Line Up Front: China’s restrained but calculated approach to Iran advances its long-term geopolitical influence in the Middle East while exploiting US-Iran tensions, posing a systemic challenge to Western diplomatic and energy security interests. Threat Identification: China is leveraging its non-interventionist stance to position itself as a neutral broker in US-Iran conflicts, while securing energy partnerships and expanding strategic influence in Iran. This aligns with broader efforts to reshape regional order without direct military involvement [Chatham House, 2026]. Probability Assessment: High likelihood over the next 3–5 years (2026–2031) that China deepens economic and diplomatic ties with Iran, particularly if US sanctions persist. Incremental steps—such as expanded oil imports and infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative—are already underway and expected to accelerate. Impact Analysis: Sustained Chinese engagement strengthens Iran’s resilience to Western pressure, weakens US-led coalition diplomacy, and enhances Beijing’s ability to project influence across the Gulf. Over time, this could erode US regional primacy and challenge global energy market stability. Recommended Actions: 1) Increase diplomatic coordination with regional partners to counterbalance Chinese influence; 2) Offer targeted sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian limits on Chinese military access; 3) Strengthen alternative energy supply chains to reduce leverage points for China. Confidence Matrix: High confidence in threat identification and probability assessment based on consistent policy signals and energy trade data; moderate confidence in impact projections due to unpredictable Iranian domestic politics and potential shifts in US policy. —Marcus Ashworth