THE LONG VIEW

Bottom Line Up Front: Large-scale, technology-first smart city projects like Dunia Cyber City and The Line pose a systemic threat to sustainable urban development by prioritizing technological spectacle over inclusive governance, social cohesion, and resident needs—despite evidence that liveability stems from balanced, people-centered policies rather than digital infrastructure alone. Threat Identification: The global proliferation of tech-centric urban developments that treat technology as a panacea, often launched on greenfield sites with promises of autonomy and innovation, but lacking democratic legitimacy, inclusivity, and integration with existing socio-political systems. Examples include Dunia Cyber City in Zanzibar and Saudi Arabia’s The Line, both of which reflect a network-state or techno-utopian ideology disconnected from real-world urban complexity [The Conversation, 2026]. Probability Assessment: High probability of continued emergence of such projects over the next 5–10 years (2026–2036), particularly in regions seeking rapid economic transformation or digital sovereignty. The appeal of cutting-edge branding and foreign investment makes these projects politically attractive despite repeated failures. Past examples like Songdo in South Korea have already demonstrated limited success in achieving long-term viability or resident satisfaction [The Conversation, 2026]. Impact Analysis: These projects risk deepening inequality, creating digital enclaves disconnected from surrounding populations, and diverting public resources from essential urban upgrades. They may also erode trust in urban innovation when high-profile failures occur. Environmentally, large-scale desert constructions like The Line carry significant ecological costs. Crucially, they often fail to improve quality of life metrics such as mobility, social cohesion, or environmental sustainability—even as they score highly on technological deployment indicators [Cities in Motion Index (CIMI), 2025]. Recommended Actions: 1. Redirect investment toward retrofitting existing cities with smart governance frameworks, not greenfield tech utopias. 2. Require independent impact assessments covering governance, inclusion, and long-term sustainability before approving new smart city zones. 3. Prioritize public-private partnerships that include civil society and resident input. 4. Adopt holistic evaluation models like CIMI to measure urban success across multiple dimensions, not just technology. 5. Promote policy exchange focused on adaptive, context-specific solutions rather than one-size-fits-all tech imports. Confidence Matrix: - Threat Identification: High confidence — Supported by multiple case studies and expert analysis. - Probability Assessment: Medium-High confidence — Based on current investment trends and policy momentum. - Impact Analysis: High confidence — Corroborated by CIMI data and urban research. - Recommended Actions: High confidence — Aligned with proven governance principles and sustainable development goals [The Conversation, 2026]. —Sir Edward Pemberton