THE LONG VIEW

Bottom Line Up Front: The Philippines faces an intensifying threat from China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea, countered by a reinforced U.S. security commitment—though fears of diplomatic sidelining amid U.S.-China rapprochement could undermine deterrence and regional stability[^1^]. Threat Identification: China’s use of water cannons, flares, and dangerous maneuvers against Filipino forces represents a persistent hybrid warfare tactic to enforce its expansive South China Sea claims, directly challenging Philippine sovereignty and freedom of navigation[^2^]. The Philippines, backed by its Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S., continues to resist coercion, but faces asymmetric pressure from Beijing’s military and diplomatic influence. Probability Assessment: High likelihood (85%) of continued or escalated Chinese provocations in the next 12–18 months, particularly around disputed features like Second Thomas Shoal, coinciding with heightened U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including planned visits by Trump and Xi in 2026[^3^]. Impact Analysis: Unchecked Chinese actions risk eroding Philippine territorial control, emboldening further regional coercion against Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan, and weakening U.S. alliance credibility in the Indo-Pacific. A perceived 'deal' between Washington and Beijing that marginalizes Manila could fracture trust in U.S. security guarantees, triggering shifts in regional alignment[^4^]. Recommended Actions: (1) Accelerate U.S.-funded Philippine military modernization and joint surveillance capabilities; (2) Institutionalize trilateral security dialogues (U.S.-Philippines-Japan/Australia) to diversify deterrence; (3) Pursue calibrated diplomatic engagement with China on non-territorial issues like climate and energy while maintaining legal positions under UNCLOS; (4) Increase transparency in U.S.-Philippines defense planning to counter disinformation and alliance doubts[^5^]. Confidence Matrix: - U.S. commitment to defend Philippines: High confidence (based on treaty obligations and recent joint exercises[^6^]) - Risk of Philippine marginalization in U.S.-China talks: Medium-high confidence (based on envoy statements and historical precedent[^7^]) - Likelihood of Chinese escalation: High confidence (supported by pattern of past behavior and recent incidents[^8^]). [^1^]: AP News, 'US won’t abandon the Philippines in fighting China’s assertiveness at sea, Manila’s envoy says,' 11 Feb 2026 [^2^]: Ibid. [^3^]: Ibid. [^4^]: Ibid. [^5^]: Ibid. [^6^]: Ibid. [^7^]: Ibid. [^8^]: Ibid. —Marcus Ashworth