THE LONG VIEW

It has happened before, and it will happen again: when empires clash and trade falters, the world doesn’t retreat—it reroutes. In the 15th century, as the Ottoman Empire disrupted overland Silk Road routes, Venice didn’t collapse; it evolved into a maritime intelligence hub, combining naval power, double-entry bookkeeping, and diplomatic neutrality to become Europe’s window to the East [Lane, 1973]. Centuries later, in the shadow of the Cold War, Hong Kong performed the same alchemy—transforming from a colonial outpost into Asia’s premier financial bridge by offering what neither Beijing nor Washington could: a trusted, rules-based middle ground. Now, as US-China decoupling, AI disruption, and populist fragmentation threaten global flows, Hong Kong is once again stepping into the ancient role of the 'trusted intermediary'. The 'three Cs'—Certainty, Capability, Connectivity—are not new slogans; they are the timeless grammar of city-state survival. Just as Amsterdam thrived by hosting the Dutch East India Company’s global network while staying politically neutral, Hong Kong today is building 'sticky' ecosystems in AI, fintech, and biotech—not by choosing sides, but by becoming the platform where both sides can safely meet. The lesson of history is clear: when the world fractures, the connectors who institutionalize trust don’t just survive—they lead. —Marcus Ashworth