THE LONG VIEW

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: U.S.-China Relations at Inflection Point — Trust Rebuilding, Military Consolidation, and Trade Diplomacy in 2026 Executive Summary: U.S.-China relations are experiencing a fragile but meaningful thaw in early 2026, driven by high-level diplomacy following the Busan agreement. Trade compliance is on track, rare earth and soybean deals are progressing, and unprecedented U.S.-China law enforcement cooperation on fentanyl has emerged. President Xi’s purge of the Central Military Commission signals a drive for total control, raising strategic concerns. While trust is slowly rebuilding through sustained dialogue, structural tensions remain. A major Boeing aircraft deal looms as a potential economic deliverable, and humanitarian appeals over Jimmy Lai’s sentencing continue behind closed doors. Primary Indicators: - President Xi has invited President Trump to Beijing in April 2026 for high-level talks - seven-member Central Military Commission now reduced to only Xi and one investigator, indicating sweeping military purge - U.S. and China have fulfilled most Busan trade truce commitments, including rare earth licensing and soybean purchases - China has banned 13 fentanyl precursor chemicals and initiated joint law enforcement operations with the U.S. - backchannel communications have expanded across interagency lines, including trade and security - Adam Smith led a U.S. legislative delegation to China in late 2025, signaling renewed congressional engagement - ambassador notes growing allied alignment with U.S. stance on China despite outward hedging by some leaders Recommended Actions: - Monitor the April 2026 Beijing summit for formalization of trade deal parameters and potential breakthroughs on Boeing negotiations - assess PLA leadership changes for implications on military doctrine and regional stability - leverage ongoing fentanyl cooperation to expand bilateral security collaboration - prepare contingency plans for potential backlash if Jimmy Lai receives harsh sentencing - strengthen outreach to allies to solidify unified positioning on critical supply chains and technology controls - support continued high-level diplomatic engagement while maintaining pressure on human rights issues through private channels Risk Assessment: The consolidation of power within China’s military under President Xi Jinping represents a silent but seismic shift—one that suggests not merely anti-corruption intent, but a deliberate effort to ensure absolute loyalty. When a lifelong friend and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission is swept aside, it is not discipline alone that speaks, but the sound of a system being remade in one man’s image. This level of control, unprecedented in modern PLA history, heightens the risk of bolder strategic moves in the Western Pacific, particularly if domestic pressures mount. Meanwhile, the veneer of cooperation on trade and fentanyl must not obscure the deeper reality: the world is rebalancing, and alliances are being tested. The parade of global leaders visiting Beijing is not coincidence—it is calculation. The United States stands at a crossroads where diplomacy may buy time, but only unity with allies will determine whether that time is used wisely. The next move is not just America’s—it is the world’s. —Marcus Ashworth