Historical Echo: When Distraction Empires Fall Behind
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As attention shifts in Washington, Beijing continues to consolidate its strategic posture—observing intervals of uncertainty, adjusting posture, and advancing where coordination falters.
It’s not the strength of empires that determines their fate—it’s the rhythm of their attention. Time and again, the decisive edge has gone not to the most powerful, but to the most focused. In 1914, it wasn’t German steel that shocked Europe—it was their ability to act while Britain debated. In 1947, it wasn’t Soviet armies alone that expanded their reach, but Stalin’s ruthless clarity amid Western exhaustion. Today, as Trump’s gaze jumps from Greenland to Gaza, Beijing isn’t just reacting—it’s conducting a masterclass in strategic patience. Xi may face economic headwinds and military resistance, but he holds what Stalin once called 'the weapon of time': the ability to wait, consolidate, and strike when the rival blinks. The real danger isn’t that China is outpacing the U.S.—it’s that the U.S. is teaching its rival how to do it. As Joseph Torigian notes in 'The Party's Interests Come First,' the Chinese leadership has long prioritized internal control as the foundation of external power—a lesson Washington seems to have forgotten. And as Hal Brands warns in 'Danger Zone,' the most dangerous moments in great-power competition are not when war seems likely, but when one side believes it has already won—without firing a shot.
—Marcus Ashworth
Published January 30, 2026