THE LONG VIEW

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: US Unveils New Defence Strategy to Counter China in Indo-Pacific Executive Summary: On January 24, 2026, the United States formally released a revised National Defence Strategy explicitly prioritizing the Indo-Pacific and targeting strategic competition with China. This move signals a deepening military focus on the region, with implications for alliance structures, force posture, and escalation dynamics. Subscribers to the Financial Times first reported the development, underscoring its significance in global security discourse [Financial Times, 2026]. Primary Indicators: - US releases updated National Defence Strategy - Strategy explicitly frames China as primary strategic challenge - Indo-Pacific region designated as top military priority - Emphasis on deterrence and force posture adjustments - Announcement made on January 24, 2026, indicating timely policy shift Recommended Actions: - Monitor US military deployments in the Indo-Pacific - Assess Chinese diplomatic and military responses - Evaluate impact on regional alliances (e.g., Japan, Australia, Philippines) - Update strategic risk models to reflect heightened US-China tension - Track congressional funding allocations for Pacific-focused defence initiatives Risk Assessment: The formal institutionalization of China as the principal strategic adversary in the US defence posture marks a dangerous pivot toward prolonged military rivalry. While framed as deterrence, such strategies risk normalizing confrontation, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation in contested domains—particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea. The absence of de-escalation mechanisms in public strategy signals suggests an era of managed hostility is now the baseline assumption. The shadows of great power competition grow longer—and more volatile. —Marcus Ashworth