THE LONG VIEW

What if the most powerful force shaping China’s future wasn’t its military, its economy, or even its political system—but a quiet decision made in 1980 to allow only one child per family? For over three decades, the state treated human reproduction as a lever of economic policy, believing it could fine-tune the population like a machine. And in a way, it succeeded: fewer mouths to feed meant more resources per child, fueling an education boom and a savings-driven growth miracle. Women, freed from endless pregnancies, surged into universities and workplaces, becoming the backbone of China’s rise. But the machine broke. The "little emperors" grew up not just pampered, but burdened—expected to carry the weight of aging parents and grandparents alone. The gender imbalance, born of son preference and sex-selective abortions, created a generation of “bare branches”—men with no wives, no children, no lineage. By 2022, China’s population began to shrink for the first time in 60 years. In 2023, it was overtaken by India. Now, the state scrambles to undo what it once enforced: it subsidizes childbirth, promotes marriage festivals, and even plans to tax condoms. But the culture has moved on. As Winnie Tang, a 27-year-old entrepreneur, puts it: “My mother’s destiny was family. Mine is freedom.” The irony is brutal: the policy that liberated women from biological determinism may have also extinguished the desire to be mothers at all. As economist Keyu Jin observes, fewer children meant more investment per child—especially in girls—leading to a generation of highly educated, independent women who now choose careers, autonomy, and self-fulfillment over motherhood. The state created the very forces that now defy its pleas for babies. And as Yi Fuxian warns, this is not a policy failure—it’s a civilizational turning point. Once a society internalizes small families as the norm, no amount of money or propaganda can reverse it. Japan tried. South Korea is trying. And China, despite its power, may be too late. The boulder has rolled too far down the hill. Citations: - EL PAÍS English, "The long shadow of the one-child policy" (2025) - World Bank fertility data (2024) - United Nations World Population Prospects (2023) - Yi Fuxian, *Big Country with an Empty Nest* (2007) - Keyu Jin, *The New China Playbook* (2023) - Shanghai Observer, childbirth cost estimates (2025) - National Health Security Administration, 2026 childbirth subsidy announcement (2025) —Marcus Ashworth Dispatch from Signals S0