Historical Echo: How the U.S. Is Repeating Its Cold War Playbook to Beat China at Critical Minerals
![industrial scale photography, clean documentary style, infrastructure photography, muted industrial palette, systematic perspective, elevated vantage point, engineering photography, operational facilities, a mineral forge, vast array of interconnected smelting crucibles glowing amber beneath corrugated steel canopies, rows of identical processing units stretching into the horizon under a dusky lavender sky, backlit by low-angle crimson sunlight streaming across a dry lake bed, atmosphere of controlled incandescence and industrial rebirth [Bria Fibo]](https://081x4rbriqin1aej.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/viral-images/ca5c669c-93d5-4f51-bd00-afad59048fa6_viral_3_square.png "industrial scale photography, clean documentary style, infrastructure photography, muted industrial palette, systematic perspective, elevated vantage point, engineering photography, operational facilities, a mineral forge, vast array of interconnected smelting crucibles glowing amber beneath corrugated steel canopies, rows of identical processing units stretching into the horizon under a dusky lavender sky, backlit by low-angle crimson sunlight streaming across a dry lake bed, atmosphere of controlled incandescence and industrial rebirth [Bria Fibo]")
If rare earth processing becomes a pillar of strategic alignment, then the architecture of global trade will reflect not market efficiency, but shared vulnerability to disruption.
It happened with rubber in 1942, with oil in 1973, and with semiconductors in 1985—each time, the United States responded to a strategic supply shock not just by rebuilding supply, but by reengineering the very architecture of economic power. When Japan cut off rubber supplies in World War II, the U.S. didn’t just plant more trees; it launched a nationwide synthetic rubber program that transformed petrochemical engineering. When OPEC weaponized oil, the U.S. didn’t just drill more—it created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, invested heavily in Alaskan pipelines, and catalyzed the rise of American energy independence through fracking decades later. Now, with China controlling over 80% of rare earth processing, the U.S. response—FORGE, Project Vault, and $30 billion in direct investment—is following the same script: treat the market as a battlefield, mobilize public capital as ammunition, and build alliances not through consensus, but through shared vulnerability. The irony is that every time, we claim to be returning to free markets—yet each crisis deepens the state’s footprint in the economy. The real pattern isn’t dependency—it’s the illusion of disengagement, shattered by the next chokepoint. And once again, the world is choosing sides not by ideology, but by supply chain allegiance.
—Marcus Ashworth
Published February 7, 2026