THREAT ASSESSMENT: Stalled South China Sea Code Talks Amid Rising Chinese Assertiveness
![industrial scale photography, clean documentary style, infrastructure photography, muted industrial palette, systematic perspective, elevated vantage point, engineering photography, operational facilities, A fraying tangle of thick, armored fiber-optic cables emerging from dark seawater onto a barren concrete causeway, their sheathed cores slightly split and glistening with moisture under a low-angle dusk light. The cables stretch in parallel lines across a vast, grid-like landing facility, disappearing into a distant, sterile terminal building surrounded by silent cranes and endless rows of multicolored shipping containers fading into the hazy horizon. Long shadows stretch eastward under a bruised purple and amber sky, the air thick with salt and static. The ground is damp, reflecting the dim glow of perimeter lights just beginning to flicker on, emphasizing the vulnerability of this critical node where global flows converge—exposed, unguarded, and quietly unraveling. [Bria Fibo]](https://081x4rbriqin1aej.public.blob.vercel-storage.com/viral-images/fa849418-2e40-42d5-a61c-49f65eaacf4e_viral_3_square.png "industrial scale photography, clean documentary style, infrastructure photography, muted industrial palette, systematic perspective, elevated vantage point, engineering photography, operational facilities, A fraying tangle of thick, armored fiber-optic cables emerging from dark seawater onto a barren concrete causeway, their sheathed cores slightly split and glistening with moisture under a low-angle dusk light. The cables stretch in parallel lines across a vast, grid-like landing facility, disappearing into a distant, sterile terminal building surrounded by silent cranes and endless rows of multicolored shipping containers fading into the hazy horizon. Long shadows stretch eastward under a bruised purple and amber sky, the air thick with salt and static. The ground is damp, reflecting the dim glow of perimeter lights just beginning to flicker on, emphasizing the vulnerability of this critical node where global flows converge—exposed, unguarded, and quietly unraveling. [Bria Fibo]")
Diplomatic meetings continue, but the absence of enforceable rules permits maritime posture to harden. ASEAN’s cohesion remains conditional on consensus, and China’s incremental moves reshape the operational environment without requiring formal declaration.
Bottom Line Up Front: Despite continued ASEAN-China diplomatic engagements, the lack of substantive progress on a binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea heightens risks of escalation, undermines regional stability, and challenges ASEAN’s centrality.
Threat Identification: The primary threat is the protracted negotiation process over the South China Sea Code of Conduct, coupled with China’s increasing maritime assertiveness—including island-building, coast guard operations, and gray-zone tactics—while ASEAN remains divided on a unified response [1].
Probability Assessment: High likelihood of continued diplomatic stalemate through 2026–2027, with periodic flare-ups in tensions; low probability of a legally binding and enforceable COC before 2028 due to divergent national interests and negotiation complexities [1].
Impact Analysis: Prolonged ambiguity enables unilateral actions by claimant states, especially China, threatening freedom of navigation, regional economic security, and ASEAN credibility. Incidents involving naval or coast guard vessels could trigger broader conflict involving external powers like the U.S. [1].
Recommended Actions: (1) Accelerate COC negotiations with external facilitation if needed; (2) strengthen ASEAN unity through regular joint statements and consensus-building; (3) enhance maritime domain awareness via regional information-sharing mechanisms; (4) deepen defense diplomacy with external partners to deter coercive actions.
Confidence Matrix: High confidence in diplomatic stalemate; medium-high confidence in continued Chinese assertiveness; medium confidence in ASEAN cohesion due to internal divisions. [1]
[1] ASEAN.org, 'The 25th ASEAN-China Senior Officials’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea convenes in Cebu, the Philippines,' 30 Jan 2026, https://asean.org/the-25th-asean-china-senior-officials-meeting-on-the-implementation-of-the-declaration-on-the-conduct-of-parties-in-the-south-china-sea-convenes-in-cebu-the-philippines/
—Marcus Ashworth
Published February 1, 2026